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CONTRIBUTORS

Francis A. Scotland

Director of Global Macro Research, Brandywine Global

Preview

For the past couple of years, the major macroeconomic developments in the US and to a lesser extent in Europe have reflected the aftershock dynamics of post-pandemic normalization—not your typical business cycle. The economic bust caused by the pandemic and lockdowns and the subsequent barrage of stimulus measures led to massive distortions in the economy, and for the past few years the narrative has been about getting things back on track.

So, what is left to normalize? As we approach what may be the final chapter of this normaliza­tion story, the investment outlook for 2024 comes down to only a handful of the most crucial macro and financial variables yet to return to something more normal: Monetary policy needs to ease, fiscal policy needs to tighten, and interest rates need to move lower.

In this 2024 outlook, our experts share their perspectives on how they expect inflation to influence growth and financial markets. We cover the following topics:

  • Macroeconomic outlook–A tipping point
  • Developed markets fixed income outlook–The year of the coupon+
  • Global currencies outlook–Policy and growth differences drive currency performance
  • Emerging markets outlook–Opportunities in local markets with high nominal and real yields
  • Investment grade credit outlook–Constructive entry point for total return
  • High yield credit outlook–Favorable dynamics persist
  • Structured credit outlook–A tale of three sectors
  • Global equities outlook–Different rate cycles create opportunities
  • US equities outlook–Market weakness and patience point to opportunities


Read the full paper to learn more.

Contributors

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