Is it springtime for US small-caps?

For some time, we have posited the idea that a regime change based on market capitalization is on the horizon. Our argument has been that small-caps, which have trailed their large-cap siblings for more than a decade, would return to their more historically typical position of performance leader.

We have also shown that, based on our preferred index valuation metric of enterprise value to earnings before interest and taxes, or EV/EBIT, relative valuations for small-cap versus large-cap are near their lowest in 25 years. In addition, the three-year average annual total return for the Russell 2000 Index as of 4/30/24 was -3.2%—and the small-cap index has had a negative three-year return only six times since its inception more than 40 years ago in 1979. Lastly, the Russell 2000 was -16.2% below its prior peak in November 2021 at the end of April 2024.

Even the impressive move by small-caps from the most recent low in late October 2023 through the end of the first quarter of 2024—which saw the Russell 2000 advance 30.7% and outperform the Russell 1000’s 28.9% gain—did little to alter the chronic underperformance narrative surrounding small-caps. Of course, it didn’t help that the Russell 2000 trailed the Russell 1000 in 1Q24, gaining 5.2% versus 10.3% for the large-cap index, which was led once again by the mega-cap Magnificent 7.

Notwithstanding currently cheap relative valuations, we are often asked what will trigger a lasting small-cap run that will end this period of relative underperformance. We think the answer may lie in the unfolding earnings story taking place in small-caps. As active small-cap managers, we have always believed that psychology runs the market in the short term—but earnings run the market in the long term. Small-cap earnings over the past year were disappointing, declining more than -10% in 2023, while large-cap earnings, driven by the Magnificent 7, were robustly positive.

Our expectation is that this dynamic will begin to reverse itself later this year as small-cap profits continue to recover via back-end loaded growth in 2024 and into 2025. This recovery is clearly evident in net income growth estimates for the Magnificent 7, the Russell 1000 (excluding the Magnificent 7), and the Russell 2000 for 2024 and into 2025, turning a significant small-cap headwind into a tailwind.

As our friend Jim Furey of Furey Research likes to say, “Compelling relative valuation may not be a sufficient condition for a small-cap cycle, but it is an absolutely necessary one.” So, too, we believe is earnings growth. Our contention that equity market returns are going to broaden is rooted in the expectation that small-cap earnings should begin to accelerate in the second half of 2024 and continue into 2025. The earnings prospects for many small-cap companies remain promising and unrecognized, specifically those for businesses with sound fundamentals, such as low-debt balance sheets, positive cash flows, and the ability to pass on higher costs in this inflationary period. We believe that active management will become even more important in this market and that earnings will ultimately drive individual company stock returns.

Stay tuned…