Macro moments episode 1 – US exceptionalism: can innovation counter the dollar's decline?

Key takeaways

The macro

US exceptionalism has delivered – but cracks are showing: Fiscal stimulus and energy independence drove recent strength, but fading tailwinds and rising debt raise question about what comes next.
Dollar dominance faces new pressures: The US remains central to global finance, but fiscal risks and trade tensions could gradually weaken its position – with implications for investors globally.

The market

US innovation still leads – but the gap is closing: AI and large-cap technology continue to drive returns but rising debt and intensifying global competition raise questions about long-term dominance.
Emerging markets ex-China stand out: With China cooling and Europe losing momentum, emerging markets outside China offer attractive opportunities across both equities and local bonds.

The managers

Investors are getting more precise with US exposure: Flows show a shift from broad allocations to targeted strategies – including mega-cap ETFs, global ex-US and thematic AI.
AI investment is accelerating – with revenues set to follow: With AI capital expenditure set to hit $1 trillion by 2028, the focus is shifting from hype to fundamentals – and identifying the real beneficiaries is key.

Episode 1: the macro, the market and the managers

US focus funds: Putnam Investments

Putnam Investments joined our line-up of investment managers in 2024 and we have carefully selected the strategies with which to launch them into the UK market. The Putnam US Large Cap Value Equity strategy and the Putnam US Research Equity strategy have attracted significant inflows and built a reputation for delivering consistent alpha driven by stock selection.

Aims for consistent outperformance regardless of style regime
Targets alpha driven by stock selection, not factor exposures
Looks to deliver low tracking error and high alpha, creating efficient returns
Experienced team supported by analysts with deep sector expertise

An active core strategy that aims to outperform the S&P 500
Targets alpha driven by stock selection, not factor exposures
Style and sector agnostic
Harnesses the best ideas from Putnam’s equity research team

US equities - it's in our DNA

We offer UK investors a diverse range of active and passive strategies - from growth to value and equity income and from mega cap to small cap.

Join us for our new 'Macro moments' series - episodes 2 to 4

Related insights

12 SEPTEMBER 2025

How US equities and US fixed income performed with a resumption of Fed easing

With Fed rate cuts seen as a strong possibility heading into year-end, Franklin Templeton Institute explores how stock and bond markets have performed during the resumption of Fed easing—and what investors need to know.

12 SEPTEMBER 2025

US small-caps undiscovered connection: Value-led periods and active management

Royce Investment Partners: There seems to be a notable historical trend of active small-cap managers outperforming the Russell 2000 Index in periods when value stocks lead, while trailing the small-cap index when growth stocks lead.

2 SEPTEMBER 2025

American exceptionalism: Can innovation counter chaos?

The concept of "American exceptionalism," representing the country's extraordinary economic, institutional, technological and financial attributes that have recently been driving significant investment returns, is currently being questioned due to recent underperformance in US stock and bond markets.