Jeffrey Schulze, CFA, Managing Director, Head of Economic and Market Strategy, ClearBridge Investments
U.S. Economy: Anatomy of a Recession
Monthly Insights To Help You Stay In Front Of The U.S. Business Cycle
ClearBridge Investments, a specialist investment manager of Franklin Templeton, designed the Anatomy of a Recession (AOR) program to deliver thoughtful perspective on the state of the US economy with concise, practical views updated every month. Our exclusive recession risk and recovery dashboards provide the statistical foundation of our perspective. Watch the video to hear more about the program from Investment Strategist Jeff Schulze and use the tabs below to explore the current market views.
Recession Risk
U.S. Recession Risk Indicators
| October 31, 2025 | September 30, 2025 | June 30, 2025 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Consumer
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Housing Permits |  |
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| Job Sentiment | ||||
| Jobless Claims | |
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| Retail Sales | |
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| Wage Growth | |
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Business Activity
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Commodities | |||
| ISM New Orders | ||||
| Profit Margins | |
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| Truck Shipments | ||||
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Financial
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Credit Spreads | |||
| Money Supply | ||||
| Yield Curve | ||||
| Overall Signal |
Not available
A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades.
‘Not Available’ reflects data that has not been updated due to the US government shutdown.
Data as of October 31, 2025.
Sources: BLS, Federal Reserve, Census Bureau, ISM, BEA, American Chemistry Council, American Trucking Association, Conference Board, Bloomberg, CME, FactSet and Macrobond. The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard was created in January 2016. References to the signals it would have sent in the years prior to January 2016 are based on how the underlying data was reflected in the component indicators at the time.
Recession Risk by Comparison
U.S. Recession Risk Indicators
| Current | 2020 | 2007-2009 | 2001 | 1990-1991 | 1981-1982 | 1980 | 1973-1975 | 1969-1970 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Confidence
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Housing Permits | |
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| Job Sentiment | ||||||||||
| Jobless Claims | |
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| Retail Sales | |
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| Wage Growth | |
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Economic
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Commodities | |||||||||
| ISM New Orders | ||||||||||
| Profit Margins | |
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| Truck Shipments | n/a | n/a | ||||||||
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Financial
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Credit Spreads | |||||||||
| Money Supply | ||||||||||
| Yield Curve | ||||||||||
| Overall Signal |
Not available‘Not Available’ reflects data that has not been updated due to the US government shutdown.
Data as of October 31, 2025.
Sources: BLS, Federal Reserve, Census Bureau, ISM, BEA, American Chemistry Council, American Trucking Association, Conference Board, Bloomberg, CME, FactSet and Macrobond.
Case Study
1990 Recession
| Q2 1988 | Q4 1988 | Q2 1989 | Q4 1989 | Q2 1990 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Consumer
|
Housing Permits | |||||
| Job Sentiment | ||||||
| Jobless Claims | ||||||
| Retail Sales | ||||||
| Wage Growth | ||||||
|
Business Activity
|
Commodities | |||||
| ISM New Orders | ||||||
| Profit Margins | ||||||
| Truck Shipments | ||||||
|
Financial
|
Credit Spreads | |||||
| Money Supply | ||||||
| Yield Curve |
Source: S&P, FactSet, NBER, and Bloomberg.
Resources
Anatomy of a Recession Presentation
This comprehensive presentation provides an extensive current market and economic overview, as well as additional content on other relevant themes.
