Skip to content

Anatomy of a Recession Q1 2026 Webinar

Jeffrey Schulze, CFA, Managing Director, Head of Economic and Market Strategy, ClearBridge Investments

Register now

Monthly Insights To Help You Stay In Front Of The U.S. Business Cycle

ClearBridge Investments, a specialist investment manager of Franklin Templeton, designed the Anatomy of a Recession (AOR) program to deliver thoughtful perspective on the state of the US economy with concise, practical views updated every month. Our exclusive recession risk and recovery dashboards provide the statistical foundation of our perspective. Watch the video to hear more about the program from Investment Strategist Jeff Schulze and use the tabs below to explore the current market views.

Recession Risk

U.S. Recession Risk Indicators
    November 30, 2025 October 31, 2025* September 30, 2025
Consumer
 Housing Permits N/A N/A Caution
Job Sentiment Recession Recession Recession
Jobless Claims Expansion Expansion Expansion
Retail Sales N/A Expansion Expansion
Wage Growth N/A Expansion Expansion
Business Activity
 Commodities Expansion Expansion Expansion
ISM New Orders Caution Caution Caution
Profit Margins N/A N/A Caution
Truck Shipments Expansion Expansion Expansion
Financial
 Credit Spreads Expansion Expansion Expansion
Money Supply Expansion Expansion Expansion
Yield Curve Caution Caution Caution
  Overall Signal Expansion Expansion Expansion

 

Expansion Expansion    Caution Caution   Recession Recession   N/A Not available

 

*Jobless Claims, Retail Sales and Wage Growth were updated with data that had been delayed by the US government shutdown.
‘Not Available’ reflects data that has not been updated due to the government shutdown.
Data as of Nov. 30, 2025. Sources: BLS, Federal Reserve, Census Bureau, ISM, BEA, American Chemistry Council, American Trucking Association, Conference Board, Bloomberg, CME, FactSet and Macrobond. The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard was created in January 2016. References to the signals it would have sent in the years prior to January 2016 are based on how the underlying data was reflected in the component indicators at the time.

Recession Risk by Comparison

U.S. Recession Risk Indicators
    Current 2020 2007-2009 2001 1990-1991 1981-1982 1980 1973-1975 1969-1970
Confidence
 Housing Permits N/A Expansion Recession Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession
Job Sentiment Recession Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession Caution Caution Caution
Jobless Claims Expansion Expansion Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession Expansion Recession
Retail Sales N/A Expansion Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Caution Recession
Wage Growth N/A Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession
Economic
 Commodities Expansion Expansion Recession Recession Recession Recession Caution Caution Caution
ISM New Orders Caution Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession
Profit Margins N/A Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Caution Recession
Truck Shipments Expansion Expansion Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession n/a n/a
Financial
 Credit Spreads Expansion Expansion Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Expansion Caution
Money Supply Expansion Expansion Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession
Yield Curve Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession
  Overall Signal Expansion Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Caution Recession

 

Expansion Expansion    Caution Caution   Recession Recession   N/A Not available
 

‘Not Available’ reflects data that has not been updated due to the government shutdown.
Data as of Nov. 30, 2025. Sources: BLS, Federal Reserve, Census Bureau, ISM, BEA, American Chemistry Council, American Trucking Association, Conference Board, Bloomberg, CME, FactSet and Macrobond. The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard was created in January 2016. References to the signals it would have sent in the years prior to January 2016 are based on how the underlying data was reflected in the component indicators at the time.

Case Study

1990 Recession

 

    Q2 1988 Q4 1988 Q2 1989 Q4 1989 Q2 1990
Consumer
 Housing Permits Caution Expansion Caution Caution Recession
Job Sentiment Expansion Expansion Expansion Recession Recession
Jobless Claims Expansion Expansion Expansion Recession Recession
Retail Sales Expansion Expansion Expansion Caution Recession
Wage Growth Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession
Business Activity
 Commodities Expansion Expansion Caution Recession Recession
ISM New Orders Expansion Expansion Recession Recession Recession
Profit Margins Expansion Expansion Expansion Caution Recession
Truck Shipments Expansion Caution Recession Recession Recession
Financial
 Credit Spreads Expansion Expansion Caution Recession Recession
Money Supply Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession
Yield Curve Expansion Expansion Recession Recession Recession

 

Source: S&P, FactSet, NBER, and Bloomberg.

Resources

Anatomy of a Recession Presentation

This comprehensive presentation provides an extensive current market and economic overview, as well as additional content on other relevant themes.

Download

Insights

View More

5 DECEMBER 2025

AOR Update: Is AI a clear and present danger?

ClearBridge Investments: The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard remains firmly in green expansionary territory; despite AI labor fears, supportive fiscal and monetary policy should power the US economy and corporate earnings in 2026.

24 NOVEMBER 2025

US economic outlook: Consumer still standing, corporations healthy

Jeff Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments, discusses key spending, employment and other policy factors he is following as we look forward to 2026.

17 NOVEMBER 2025

AOR Update (Podcast): Robust earnings good for labor market

On this month’s Talking Markets podcast, Jeff Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments, discusses the latest US economic outlook and provides insights on the Recession Risk Dashboard. Despite a federal government shutdown delaying official data releases, Jeff shares the alternative indicators he's using and why he thinks they point to continued economic resilience, strong corporate earnings, and a resilient consumer.

I agree to be contacted by Franklin Templeton and understand that I am providing the e-mail address which is used for business-related purposes.