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Anatomy of a Recession Q1 2025 Webinar

Jeffrey Schulze, CFA Director, Investment Strategist ClearBridge Investments

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Monthly Insights To Help You Stay In Front Of The US Business Cycle

The Anatomy of a Recession (AOR) program is built to deliver thoughtful perspective on the state of the United States economy with concise, practical views updated every month. Our exclusive recession risk and recovery dashboards provide the statistical foundation of our perspective.

  • Recession Risk
  • Recession Risk by Comparison
  • Case Study

Recession Risk

Recession Risk

US Recession Risk Indicators
    Sept. 30, 2026 June 30, 2026 March 31, 2026
Consumer
 Housing Permits Expansion Expansion Caution
Job Sentiment Recession Recession Recession
Jobless Claims Expansion Expansion Expansion
Retail Sales Expansion Expansion Expansion
Wage Growth Expansion Expansion Expansion
Business Activity
 Commodities Expansion Expansion Expansion
ISM New Orders Expansion Expansion Expansion
Profit Margins Expansion Expansion Caution
Truck Shipments Expansion Expansion Expansion
Financial
 Credit Spreads Expansion Expansion Expansion
Money Supply Expansion Expansion Expansion
Yield Curve Expansion Expansion Expansion
  Overall Signal Expansion Expansion Expansion

 

Expansion Expansion    Caution Caution   Recession Recession  

 

Data as of September 30, 2026. Sources: BLS, Federal Reserve, Census Bureau, ISM, BEA, American Chemistry Council, American Trucking Association, Conference Board, Bloomberg, CME, FactSet and Macrobond. The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard was created in January 2016. References to the signals it would have sent in the years prior to January 2016 are based on how the underlying data was reflected in the component indicators at the time.

Recession Risk by Comparison

Recession Risk by Comparison

US Recession Risk Indicators
    Current 2020 2007-2009 2001 1990-1991 1981-1982 1980 1973-1975 1969-1970
Confidence
 Housing Permits Expansion Expansion Recession Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession
Job Sentiment Recession Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession Caution Caution Caution
Jobless Claims Expansion Expansion Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession Expansion Recession
Retail Sales Expansion Expansion Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Caution Recession
Wage Growth Expansion Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession
Economic
 Commodities Expansion Expansion Recession Recession Recession Recession Caution Caution Caution
ISM New Orders Expansion Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession
Profit Margins Expansion Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Caution Recession
Truck Shipments Expansion Expansion Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession n/a n/a
Financial
 Credit Spreads Expansion Expansion Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Expansion Caution
Money Supply Expansion Expansion Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession
Yield Curve Expansion Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession
  Overall Signal Expansion Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Caution Recession

 

Expansion Expansion    Caution Caution   Recession Recession   
 

Data as of September 30, 2026. Sources: BLS, Federal Reserve, Census Bureau, ISM, BEA, American Chemistry Council, American Trucking Association, Conference Board, Bloomberg, CME, FactSet and Macrobond. The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard was created in January 2016. References to the signals it would have sent in the years prior to January 2016 are based on how the underlying data was reflected in the component indicators at the time.

Case Study

    Q2 1988 Q4 1988 Q2 1989 Q4 1989 Q2 1990
Consumer
 Housing Permits Caution Expansion Caution Caution Recession
Job Sentiment Expansion Expansion Expansion Recession Recession
Jobless Claims Expansion Expansion Expansion Recession Recession
Retail Sales Expansion Expansion Expansion Caution Recession
Wage Growth Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession
Business Activity
 Commodities Expansion Expansion Caution Recession Recession
ISM New Orders Expansion Expansion Recession Recession Recession
Profit Margins Expansion Expansion Expansion Caution Recession
Truck Shipments Expansion Caution Recession Recession Recession
Financial
 Credit Spreads Expansion Expansion Caution Recession Recession
Money Supply Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession
Yield Curve Expansion Expansion Recession Recession Recession

 

Source: S&P, FactSet, NBER, and Bloomberg.

Insights

14 OCTOBER 2026

AOR Update (Podcast): Not All Hiking Cycles Are Created Equal

With recession risks still low, higher real yields and a patient Federal Reserve are creating opportunities in global equities and emerging market bond, according to Jeff Schulze, Head Investment Strategist at Franklin Templeton Institute.

8 OCTOBER 2026

The Long View: Love at First Hike? It Could Be

ClearBridge Investments: With the economy still resilient, a gradual Federal Reserve hiking cycle could help broaden market leadership beyond the Magnificent Seven.

1 OCTOBER 2026

Emerging Markets: Why Waiting for Certainty Could Be Costly

ClearBridge Investments: Emerging markets have significantly evolved in recent years and offer a more compelling risk/reward setup than in the past. From deeper local markets to world-leading companies, Emerging markets presents a stronger opportunity than geopolitical volatility suggests.

Recession Recovery: Stay Ready with Our Economic Updates

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