Episode 2
Between giants: the UK's post-Brexit balancing act
Join Michael Browne as we explore the significant, impactful events or moments that will shape larger trends and investment outcomes in the years ahead.
Key takeaways
The macro
- Tariffs are reshaping global demand – but not derailing EM growth: Short-term shocks are real, but emerging economies are adapting fast, finding new markets and building resilience.
- Domestic demand is redrawing the EM map: India and China are increasingly driven by internal consumption, while smaller economies like Chile remain export-led – challenging how we classify emerging markets.
The market
- The EM race is still on – but the leaders are changing: Mexico and Brazil are gaining ground, while China and India face headwinds from trade tensions and policy missteps.
- Smaller EMs step into the spotlight: Countries like Vietnam and Malaysia are benefiting from shifting supply chains – offering fresh angles for investors tracking the next wave of growth.
The managers
- Currency and rate dynamics favour local debt: With EM currencies undervalued and real rates high, local debt markets offer attractive entry points – especially in frontier economies.
- Equity focus is shifting towards reform-led markets: China and India face valuation and policy challenges, while Brazil and Korea stand out for corporate strength and reform momentum.
Episode 3: the macro, the market and the managers
Franklin Templeton’s 'Macro moments': insights from our institute
Register for our 'Macro moments' series
