The US outlook has been branded with a new scarlet letter: a K. The prevailing narrative describes a “K-shaped” economy overly reliant on consumption by high-income households. According to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai, that narrative is quite misleading. She notes that incomes have been rising broadly across the population and argues that the economy looks more resilient than the headlines suggest.

The Iran conflict is the headline—but deglobalization and innovation are the story. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai shares her perspective on the two structural shifts that she believes matter most right now: retrenchment in globalization and accelerating innovation. Both point to higher yields—plus more volatility ahead.

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai shares her perspective on the US dollar. She believes any recent weakness should be understood as cyclical rather than structural because the dollar’s dominance remains unchallenged, anchored by the United States’ economic scale, institutional credibility and unrivaled market depth.

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai shares her perspective on the oil shock’s impact on growth, inflation and financial markets.

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai shares her preliminary views on the impact the conflict in Iran will likely have on bond yields, the US dollar and emerging market assets.

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai believes inflation is likely to remain stubbornly above target. With growth robust and the labor market showing signs of stabilization, this suggests the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle has already come to an end.

Amid heightened geopolitical and energy-driven inflation risks, central banks in North America are expected to stay on hold while those in Europe and Asia are poised to react if pressures persist, according to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income.

Growth is holding up across major economies, according to the Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team, but geopolitics and energy prices are raising inflation risks. Policy remains the key swing factor, with central banks potentially diverging. Find out more in the latest FTFI Macro Views.

The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team believes the US economy is expected to remain resilient in 2026, while the euro area faces cautious optimism. Japan’s growth is underpinned by fiscal expansion and robust private demand. Find out more in the latest “Macro Views.”

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income economists weigh in on the future of monetary policy across the globe. US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hints at a potential rate cut in September. Meanwhile, the outlook for the eurozone is looking cautiously optimistic as business confidence rises. While wage growth progression and sticky food inflation are key factors likely to influence the BoJ's future rate decisions. Find out more in the latest “Macro Views.”

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income economists explore tariffs’ potential impact on growth and inflation in the United States and euro area. Meanwhile, all eyes are on the implementation of the German fiscal announcement. The recent Bank of Japan meeting was dovish, and markets were quick to pare back expectations on the pace of interest rate hikes as growth headwinds overshadowed inflation and wage concerns.

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income economists explore the impact of proposed changes to US tariffs and the implications for other economies. Meanwhile, the eurozone contemplates increasing defense spending given a United States that promises to be less active in global security, and the Bank of Japan tightens monetary policy in light of increased price pressures.

Although sentiment remains sensitive to headlines around the Strait of Hormuz and energy markets, Franklin Templeton’s Emerging Markets Debt team sees an asset class that has shown it can absorb shocks, even as renewed geopolitical flare-ups or a broader risk-off episode could still test markets.

As the Middle East conflict causes widespread uncertainty for global financial markets, this paper offers a guide to the potential duration of volatility and the different impacts likely for emerging markets in the region and around the world.

Looking ahead to 2026, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Head of European Fixed Income David Zahn says he is cautiously optimistic about Europe’s economic outlook.

The removal of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro has materially improved the country’s outlook, according to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Emerging Market Debt Director Nicholas Hardingham. He believes this action helps alleviate a long-standing political and economic impasse that had prevented reform, external engagement, and debt resolution.

Several factors point toward potential global growth acceleration in 2026. However, employment weakness poses a meaningful risk. Our experts share what this sideways outlook may mean for the economy, financial markets, and cross-country divergences.

Emerging markets defied expectations in 2025 amid a surprisingly favorable global environment and several historically troubled economies enacting significant structural reforms. Our Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team share their 2026 outlook for emerging market debt and assess whether these positive trends will continue.

Private credit and public high yield can look similar on the surface, according to the Franklin Templeton Fixed Income high yield team. Both offer income and both carry credit risk. The bigger difference is how each market lets investors see price and manage that risk as conditions change.

The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team believes that the US economic outlook at this stage likely doesn't warrant additional monetary easing; however, outside the United States, economic growth still faces some challenges and suggests proceeding with caution. Read more in their latest Sector Views.

The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team believes, despite increased clarity across both macroeconomic and market conditions, uncertainty remains. Read more in their latest Sector Views.

The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team believes the US economy remains strong despite concerns over tariff policies and the fiscal deficit. The EU economy, however, is weaker with anemic growth, which has led the European Central Bank to cut rates. The US Federal Reserve's rate-cut expectations have fluctuated, reflecting concerns over economic policies. Read more in their latest Sector Views.

The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team feels optimistic about the US economy, driven by consumer spending, which should limit the need for rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. However, policy changes by President-elect Trump, such as increased tariffs and immigration changes, could add inflationary pressures. Read more in their latest Sector Views.

The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team believes in a cautious stance on fixed income sectors as most spreads are hovering around 20-year lows, but still prefer high-quality, shorter-maturity assets that have attractive yields. Read more in their latest Sector Views.